CryptoIQ
Regime intelligence in long form. The weekly IQ Market Memo, methodology deep-dives, Operator Q&A, and protocol research — where the score gets explained, and where we name what we got wrong.
Issue 07 — For three issues the whole crypto complex has been pinned under higher-for-longer and a firm dollar. June CPI, out Jul 14 at −0.4% on the month and 3.5% year-over-year, took the rate leg of that pin off the table — the softest read of the year and the clearest good news Bitcoin has gotten since the June exit. The asset took the print, cleared $65,000, and gave most of it back. Spot Bitcoin ETFs booked a second straight green week at about +$75.5M, and the Ethereum funds out-took them at +$105.5M. But Cycle IQ sat flat at 51.9, Altcoin IQ barely moved to 31.1, and Attention IQ crept to 23.4. The backdrop improved. The asset couldn't use it, and that's the more honest signal of the week.
Issue 06 — Cycle IQ climbed 2.7 to 52.2 and crossed into Neutral as spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped to a net-positive week, about +$197M on our tally with three of five sessions green, the first clean green week since May. That answers the flow question I left open last issue. But the other two watch items didn't confirm: the dollar never broke 100, and June CPI doesn't print until Jul 14. Altcoin IQ slipped to 30.9 and Attention IQ sat at 21.3, so the demand that returned came through the Bitcoin ETF wrapper and nowhere else.
Issue 05 — Cycle IQ snapped back 13.1 to 49.5 (Accumulation) after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had eased and a soft June jobs report pulled rate cuts back onto the table, sending Bitcoin from a fresh 21-month low back over $61,000. The bounce was Bitcoin's alone: Altcoin IQ fell 5.4 to 32.4 and Attention IQ dropped 4.2 to 19.4, both making new lows straight into the rally, and June still closed as spot Bitcoin ETFs' worst month on record, roughly $4.5B out. A macro-relief bounce in a market that's still broken underneath.
Issue 04 — Cycle IQ fell 9.2 to 45.5, Altcoin IQ round-tripped its mid-June bounce to 37.8, and Attention IQ is still in the basement at 24.3. A hot May PCE print detonated roughly $1.26B in liquidations and capped a roughly $1.8B week of Bitcoin ETF outflows. The June stabilization was a head-fake: Bitcoin's beaten down on sentiment and price, but the demand exit re-accelerated and the long-term holders who mark real bottoms still haven't been forced to give anything back.
Issue 03 — A hawkish Fed dot plot landing on a market that had already deleveraged and bled out in early June, an Attention IQ at its lowest since the June 2022 Terra/3AC capitulation (~16.3), the alt rotation still missing, and a first look at Exit IQ: our on-chain tracker for team and market-maker supply movement.
Issue 02 — Bitcoin tested its 200-week average for the first time since it broke through in 2022 and held the line by the weekly close, while Cycle IQ firmed to 54.5 and the most committed buyer in the market stepped in below cost. The flush, who bought it, and the macro overhang into next week's Fed.